Silver Lining For GOP Senate Races?
Four Republicans have now retired from the Senate (Brownback in Kansas, Voinovich in Ohio, Martinez in Florida, and Bond in Missouri) with potentially two more on the horizon (Chuck Grassley in Iowa and Jim Bunning in Kentucky). Traditionally, when retirements come largely from one party, then its likely that that party is in trouble. Not only will Republicans have to fight for these seats, they'll also have to fight for David "The Diaper" Vitter's seat in Louisiana, Arlen Specter's seat in Pennsylvania, Judd Gregg's seat in New Hampshire, and Richard Burr's seat in North Carolina.
So what's the silver lining? Well for one, Barack Obama has inadvertently handed the GOP some chance pickups in Colorado, Illinois, New York, and Delaware where appointed Senators will have to defend these seats. Appointed Senators have a poor track record of winning seats in their own rights and with the right recruit (and conversely with poor appointment choices on the part of the Democrats), Republicans could make a play for Illinois (by picking Republican Congressman Mark Kirk) and New York (Peter King should be able to raise the money to give any Democrat a fit).
In Colorado, the appointment of unknown and untested Denver Schools Chief Michael Bennet leaves that seat vulnerable as well. Delaware is the exception where Ted Kaufman was appointed by the Governor as a placeholder for Joe Biden's son, Beau Biden's 2010 election chances. If Delaware Republican Mike Castle (despite his poor health) decides to make a run for it, he may have a fighting chance.
The retirements of Mel Martinez and George Voinovich I'd argue are actually good news. There is a stronger bench of potential Republicans who could win Florida in 2010 than Martinez could. Same with Voinovich in Ohio. Republicans may even have a better shot at Missouri with Bond out of the way (though that's not likely) and Republicans would only love it if Jim Bunning were to finally retire. So yah, while Republicans are still in trouble in terms of Senate races, they likely have a better shot than some realize.
One thing that I think will disappoint Democrats is that there largest recruiting and fundraising tool (Barack Obama) will be woefully indifferent to the cause of a 60 seat majority. Unlike George W. Bush (who masterfully used his popularity to pick up Senate seats in 2002 and 2004), I doubt Obama will bother with much campaigning for Democrats. If the economy has improved, I'm sure he will, but if things continue as they are now, I fully expect Obama to maintain his popularity but preserve it for himself and not the Democratic ticket.
So what's the silver lining? Well for one, Barack Obama has inadvertently handed the GOP some chance pickups in Colorado, Illinois, New York, and Delaware where appointed Senators will have to defend these seats. Appointed Senators have a poor track record of winning seats in their own rights and with the right recruit (and conversely with poor appointment choices on the part of the Democrats), Republicans could make a play for Illinois (by picking Republican Congressman Mark Kirk) and New York (Peter King should be able to raise the money to give any Democrat a fit).
In Colorado, the appointment of unknown and untested Denver Schools Chief Michael Bennet leaves that seat vulnerable as well. Delaware is the exception where Ted Kaufman was appointed by the Governor as a placeholder for Joe Biden's son, Beau Biden's 2010 election chances. If Delaware Republican Mike Castle (despite his poor health) decides to make a run for it, he may have a fighting chance.
The retirements of Mel Martinez and George Voinovich I'd argue are actually good news. There is a stronger bench of potential Republicans who could win Florida in 2010 than Martinez could. Same with Voinovich in Ohio. Republicans may even have a better shot at Missouri with Bond out of the way (though that's not likely) and Republicans would only love it if Jim Bunning were to finally retire. So yah, while Republicans are still in trouble in terms of Senate races, they likely have a better shot than some realize.
One thing that I think will disappoint Democrats is that there largest recruiting and fundraising tool (Barack Obama) will be woefully indifferent to the cause of a 60 seat majority. Unlike George W. Bush (who masterfully used his popularity to pick up Senate seats in 2002 and 2004), I doubt Obama will bother with much campaigning for Democrats. If the economy has improved, I'm sure he will, but if things continue as they are now, I fully expect Obama to maintain his popularity but preserve it for himself and not the Democratic ticket.
posted by Chris at 10:30 AM
1 Comments:
Keep an eye on Charlie Copeland in Delaware. He was the GOP Lt. Gov. candidate this past year, is still in his thirties, was the Senate minority leader until passing on a reelection run in favor of a Lt. Gov. run, and is a member of the DuPont family.
I'd be shocked if Castle ran. He's passed on viable Senate runs at least three times now and is nearing 70, plus he had a stroke during the 2006 campaign. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he chose retirement in 2010.
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home